1.  The amount of damage caused by an EQ is a function of…
 
 a) duration and magnitude of quake

  b) type of substrate under structures

  c) building design

 d) population density & TOD

Earthquake Prediction

1. Long Term => based on amount of relative movement of plates and historical records.

=> statistical probabilities for earthquakes in 10s of years....  seismic risk maps

=>Seismic-Gap Method.

=> based on fault slip and historical records of seismic activity.

=> areas along fault with very little slip and seismic activity

= stored energy

=> high probability of producing a destructive quake

2. Short Term....still being refined

-> careful monitoring

     = precursors.