UNEMPLOYMENT AND ITS NATURAL RATE
  1. The unemployment rate is the percentage of those who would like to work but do not have jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates this statistic monthly based on a survey of thousands of households.
  2. The unemployment rate is an imperfect measure of joblessness. Some people who call themselves unemployed may actually not want to work, and some people who would like to work have left the labor force after an unsuccessful search.
  3. In the U.S. economy, most people who become unemployed find work within a short period of time. Nonetheless, most unemployment observed at any given time is attributable to the few people who are unemployed for long periods of time.
  4. One reason for unemployment is the time it takes for workers to search for jobs that best suit their skills and tastes. Unemployment insurance is a government policy that, while protecting workers’ incomes, increases the amount of frictional unemployment.
  5. A second reason why our economy always has some unemployment is minimum-wage laws. By raising the wage of unskilled and inexperienced workers above the equilibrium level, minimum-wage laws raise the quantity of labor supplied and reduce the quantity demanded. The resulting excess supply of labor represents unemployment.

 

Does the Unemployment Rate Measure What We Want It To?

1. Measuring the unemployment rate is not as straightforward as it may seem.

2. There is a tremendous amount of movement into and out of the labor force.

a. Many of the unemployed are new entrants or reentrants looking for work.

b. Some unemployment spells end with a person leaving the labor force as opposed to actually finding a job.

3. There may be individuals who are calling themselves unemployed to receive government assistance, yet they are not trying hard to find work. These individuals are more likely not a part of the true labor force, but they will be counted as unemployed.

4. Definition of Discouraged Workers: individuals who would like to work but have given up looking for a job.

a. These individuals will not be counted as part of the labor force.

b. Thus, while they are likely a part of the unemployed, they will not show up in the unemployment statistics.

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY

One way to look at macroeconomics.

Definition of Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply: the model that most economists use to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend or potential.

Definition of Aggregate-Demand Curve: a curve that shows the quantity of goods and services that households, firms, the government and the rest of the world want to buy at each price level.

Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Might Shift (Some Examples)

1. Shifts Arising from Consumption

a. Americans become more concerned with saving for retirement and reduce current consumption. This will decrease aggregate demand.

b. When the government cuts taxes, it encourages people to spend more, resulting in an increase in aggregate demand.

c. Americans become pessimistic about the future.

2. Shifts Arising from Investment

a. The computer industry introduces a faster line of computers and many firms decide to invest in new computer systems. This will lead to an increase in aggregate demand.

b. If firms become pessimistic about future business conditions, they may cut back on investment spending, shifting aggregate demand to the left.

3. Shifts Arising from Government Purchases

a. Congress decides to reduce purchases of new weapon systems. This will decrease aggregate demand.

b. If state governments decide to build more state highways, aggregate demand will shift to the right.

4. Shifts Arising from Net Exports

a. When Europe experiences a recession, it buys fewer American goods which lowers net exports. Aggregate demand will shift to the left.

b. If the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar increases, U.S. goods become more expensive to foreigners. Net exports fall and aggregate demand shifts to the left.

 

Definition of Aggregate-Supply Curve: a curve that shows the quantity of goods and services that firms choose to produce and sell at each price level.

Why the Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve Might Shift

1. Shifts Arising From Labor

a. Increases in immigration increase the number of workers available..

b. Any change in the natural rate of unemployment.  (If we mimicked Europe's programs our natural rate might change.)

2. Shifts Arising from Capital

a. An increase in the economy’s capital stock raises productivity.

b. This would also be true if the increase occurred in human capital rather than physical capital.

3. Shifts Arising from Natural Resources

a. A discovery of a new mineral deposit increases aggregate supply.

b. A change in weather patterns that makes farming more difficult shifts aggregate supply to the left.

c. A change in the availability of imported resources can also affect aggregate supply. AN OIL EMBARGO

4. Shifts Arising from Technological Knowledge

a. The invention of the computer has allowed us to produce more goods and services from any given level of resources. As a result, it has shifted the aggregate-supply curve to the right.

b. Opening up international trade has similar effects to inventing new production processes. Therefore, it also shifts the  aggregate-supply curve to the right.

You should be able to use the AD/AS graphs and I have given several examples.  The most important part, however, is the recessions and how to fight them like we did in class.

Money, the FED, and MONEY CREATION

The Fed has a Board of Governors with seven members who serve 14-year terms.

a. The Board of Governors has a chairman who is appointed for a four-year term.

b. Who is the current chairman?

The Federal Reserve System is made up of 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks located in major cities around the country.

One job that the Fed does is the regulation of banks to ensure the health of the nation’s banking system.

The second job of the Fed is to control the quantity of money available in the economy.

a. Definition of Money Supply: the quantity of money available in the economy.

b. Definition of Monetary Policy: the setting of the money supply by policymakers in the central bank.

The Federal Open Market Committee

a. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of the 7 members of the Board of Governors and 5 of the 12 regional Federal Reserve District Banks.

b. The FOMC meets about every six weeks in order to discuss the condition of the economy and consider changes in monetary policy.

c.. The primary way in which the Fed increases or decreases the supply of money is through open market operations (which involve the purchase or sale of government bonds).

d.  The secondary way is by changing the discount rate.  The interest  rate charged on a load between the Fed and a member bank.

Money Creation and Controlling the Money Supply

When banks makes loans, the money supply changes.  Remember that M1 = currency + checkable (demand) deposits.

Start by depositing $100 in a bank

FIRST NATIONAL BANK

Assets

Liabilities

Reserves

$10.00

Deposits

$100.00

Loans

90.00

   

First National loans part of the money and creates and addition $90 that goes into 2nd National.

SECOND NATIONAL BANK

Assets

Liabilities

Reserves

$9.00

Deposits

$90.00

Loans

81.00

   

Each time the money is deposited and a bank loan is created, more money is created.

Main Tools of Monetary Policy

Definition of Open Market Operations: the purchase and sale of U.S. government bonds by the Fed.

a. If the Fed wants to increase the supply of money, it creates dollars and uses them to purchase government bonds from the public.

b. If the Fed wants to lower the supply of money, it sells government bonds from its portfolio to the public. Money is then taken out of the hands of the public and the supply of money falls.

Definition of Discount Rate: the interest rate on the loans that the Fed makes to banks.

a. When a bank cannot meet its reserve requirements, it may borrow reserves from the Fed. (See the Reserves in the T-account above.)

b. A higher discount rate discourages banks from borrowing at the Fed and likely encourages banks to hold onto larger amounts of their reserves. This in turn lowers the money supply.

c. A lower discount rate encourages banks to lend their reserves (and borrow from the Fed). This will increase the money supply.