UNEMPLOYMENT AND ITS NATURAL RATE
- The unemployment rate is the percentage of those who would like to work
but do not have jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates this
statistic monthly based on a survey of thousands of households.
- The unemployment rate is an imperfect measure of joblessness. Some people
who call themselves unemployed may actually not want to work, and some
people who would like to work have left the labor force after an
unsuccessful search.
- In the U.S. economy, most people who become unemployed find work within a
short period of time. Nonetheless, most unemployment observed at any given
time is attributable to the few people who are unemployed for long periods
of time.
- One reason for unemployment is the time it takes for workers to search for
jobs that best suit their skills and tastes. Unemployment insurance is a
government policy that, while protecting workers’ incomes, increases the
amount of frictional unemployment.
- A second reason why our economy always has some unemployment is
minimum-wage laws. By raising the wage of unskilled and inexperienced
workers above the equilibrium level, minimum-wage laws raise the quantity of
labor supplied and reduce the quantity demanded. The resulting excess supply
of labor represents unemployment.


- The unemployment rate is the number of people unemployment divided by
the number of persons in the labor force. Although economists take care in
calculating the unemployment rate, it suffers from problems involving
part-time employment and discouraged workers.
- Not everyone who is unemployed is unemployed for the same reason. In
describing labor markets, economists refer to frictional unemployment,
cyclical unemployment, and structural unemployment. To mitigate the costs
of unemployment, the government has many programs such as education and
training programs and also unemployment insurance.
- Economist call the level of unemployment at which there is no cyclical
unemployment the natural rate of unemployment. The natural rate of
unemployment is the sum of frictional and structural unemployment and is
the economists’ notion of full employment. Most economists estimate the
natural rate of unemployment to be between 4 and 6 percent of the labor
force.
Does the Unemployment Rate Measure What We Want It To?
1. Measuring the unemployment rate is not as straightforward as it may
seem.
2. There is a tremendous amount of movement into and out of the labor
force.
a. Many of the unemployed are new entrants or reentrants looking for
work.
b. Some unemployment spells end with a person leaving the labor force as
opposed to actually finding a job.
3. There may be individuals who are calling themselves unemployed to
receive government assistance, yet they are not trying hard to find work.
These individuals are more likely not a part of the true labor force, but they
will be counted as unemployed.
4. Definition of Discouraged Workers: individuals who would like
to work but have given up looking for a job.
a. These individuals will not be counted as part of the labor force.
b. Thus, while they are likely a part of the unemployed, they will not
show up in the unemployment statistics.
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY
One way to look at macroeconomics.
- The business cycle refers to recurrent ups and downs in the level of
economic activity extending over several years.
- Although business cycles vary in intensity and duration, we divide each
into four phases: peak, recession, trough, and recovery.
- When real GDP decreases for at least two consecutive quarters, we say
that the economy is in a recession. A depression is a very deep and
prolonged recession. Since no subsequent recession has approached the
severity of the Great Depression, the term is often used as a reference to
the slump in the 1930s. (Although, I would argue that the recession of the
1890 was just as severe.)
- Many economists believe that a change in total spending is the immediate
determinant of domestic output and employment (THE AGGREGATE DEMAND
RECESSION). However, other economists
maintain that changes in the supply side of the market, such as the
development of better technologies or decreases in natural resources,
cause business cycles. (THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY RECESSION)
Definition of Model of Aggregate Demand
and Aggregate Supply: the model that most economists use to explain
short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend or
potential.
Definition of Aggregate-Demand Curve:
a curve that shows the quantity of goods and services that households, firms,
the government and the rest of the world want to buy at each price level.

Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Might Shift (Some Examples)
1. Shifts Arising from Consumption
a. Americans become more concerned with saving for retirement and reduce
current consumption. This will decrease aggregate demand.
b. When the government cuts taxes, it encourages people to spend more,
resulting in an increase in aggregate demand.
c. Americans become pessimistic about the future.
2. Shifts Arising from Investment
a. The computer industry introduces a faster line of computers and many
firms decide to invest in new computer systems. This will lead to an
increase in aggregate demand.
b. If firms become pessimistic about future business conditions, they may
cut back on investment spending, shifting aggregate demand to the left.
3. Shifts Arising from Government Purchases
a. Congress decides to reduce purchases of new weapon systems. This will
decrease aggregate demand.
b. If state governments decide to build more state highways, aggregate
demand will shift to the right.
4. Shifts Arising from Net Exports
a. When Europe experiences a recession, it buys fewer American goods
which lowers net exports. Aggregate demand will shift to the left.
b. If the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar increases, U.S. goods become
more expensive to foreigners. Net exports fall and aggregate demand shifts
to the left.
Definition of Aggregate-Supply Curve:
a curve that shows the quantity of goods and services that firms choose to
produce and sell at each price level.
Why the Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve Might Shift
1. Shifts Arising From Labor
a. Increases in immigration increase the number of workers available..
b. Any change in the natural rate of unemployment. (If we mimicked
Europe's programs our natural rate might change.)
2. Shifts Arising from Capital
a. An increase in the economy’s capital stock raises productivity.
b. This would also be true if the increase occurred in human capital
rather than physical capital.
3. Shifts Arising from Natural Resources
a. A discovery of a new mineral deposit increases aggregate supply.
b. A change in weather patterns that makes farming more difficult shifts
aggregate supply to the left.
c. A change in the availability of imported resources can also affect
aggregate supply. AN OIL EMBARGO
4. Shifts Arising from Technological Knowledge
a. The invention of the computer has allowed us to produce more goods and
services from any given level of resources. As a result, it has shifted the
aggregate-supply curve to the right.
b. Opening up international trade has similar effects to inventing new
production processes. Therefore, it also shifts the aggregate-supply
curve to the right.
You should be able to use the AD/AS graphs and I
have given several examples. The most important part, however, is the
recessions and how to fight them like we did in class.
- According to the multiplier effect, a change in any one of the
components of aggregate demand (consumption, investment, government
spending, or net exports) tends to result in a magnified impact on nations
output and income. The size of the multiplier depends on the spending and
saving habits of consumers and business.
- The aggregate demand and aggregate supply model can be applied to the
problem of recession and also inflation. According to this model,
decreases in aggregate demand or decreases in aggregate supply can result
in a recession for the economy; inflation may be the result of increases
in aggregate demand or decreases in aggregate supply. An economy
experiences stagflation when there is both recession and inflation. Fiscal
policy is the use of government expenditures and taxes to promote
particular macroeconomic goals such as full employment stable prices, and
economic growth. In the US, the Congress and the President conduct fiscal
policy.
- Discretionary fiscal policy is the deliberate use of changes in
government expenditures and taxation to affect aggregate demand and
influence to economy’s performance in the short run. To combat a
recession, the government can slash taxes and/or increase expenditures in
order to boost aggregate demand. The government can combat inflation by
increasing taxes and/or cutting expenditures, thus decreasing aggregate
demand.
- Unlike discretionary fiscal policy, automatic stabilizers consistent of
changes in government spending and tax revenues and tax revenues that
occurs automatically as the economy fluctuates. The automatic stabilizers
prevent aggregate demand from decreasing as much as in bad times and
rising as much in good times, thus moderating fluctuating in economic
activity. Automatic stabilizers include the personal income tax, the
corporate income tax, and transfer payments such as unemployment insurance
benefits and food stamps.
Money, the FED, and MONEY CREATION
- Money is the set of assets in the economy that people regularly use to
purchase goods and services from other people. Money has three functions
in the economy: It is a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store
of value. These functions distinguish money from other assets such as
stocks and bonds, real estate, and the like.
1. Definition of Commodity Money: money that takes the form
of a commodity with intrinsic value.
2. Definition of Fiat Money: money without intrinsic value
that is used as money because of government decree.
- Are credit cards money? Not at all! If you use your credit card to make
a purchase, you obtain a short-term loan from the financial institution
that issued the card. Credit cards are thus a method of postponing payment
for a brief period. In shopping for a credit card, a person should want to
consider features such as the credit card’s annual percentage rate, the
grace period, whether the issuer may be charged an over-limit fee or a
late-payment fee, and the annual cost of the card.
- The basic money supply, M1, consistents of currency and checking. Under
federal law, only the US Treasury issues coins and the Federal Reserves
issues paper currency. Checking account money is created by the banking
system.
- The check collection system in the United States is efficient, but the
collection process that a check goes through may be complicated. The
checking processing system is conducted by local clearinghouses,
corresponding banks, and the Federal Reserve’s check collection network.
- Most of our money comes from checking accounts issued by banks, rather
than currency. Through the process of lending reserves, banks create
money. The money multiplier is used to calculate the maximum amount of
money the banking system generates with each dollar of reserves. The money
multiplier is the reciprocal of the reserve requirement ratio.
- The Federal Reserve System, often called the Fed, is the central bank of
the United States. It was created through an act signed by President
Woodrow Wilson in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible,
and more stable monetary and financial system.
The Fed has a Board of Governors with seven members who serve 14-year
terms.
a. The Board of Governors has a chairman who is appointed for a four-year
term.
b. Who is the current chairman?
The Federal Reserve System is made up of 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks
located in major cities around the country.
One job that the Fed does is the regulation of banks to ensure the health
of the nation’s banking system.
The second job of the Fed is to control the quantity of money available in
the economy.
a. Definition of Money Supply: the quantity of money available
in the economy.
b. Definition of Monetary Policy: the setting of the money
supply by policymakers in the central bank.
The Federal Open Market Committee
a. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of the 7 members of
the Board of Governors and 5 of the 12 regional Federal Reserve District
Banks.
b. The FOMC meets about every six weeks in order to discuss the condition
of the economy and consider changes in monetary policy.
c.. The primary way in which
the Fed increases or decreases the supply of money is through open market
operations (which involve the purchase or sale of government bonds).
d. The secondary way is by
changing the discount rate. The interest rate charged on a load
between the Fed and a member bank.
- The Fed has a structure designed by Congress to give it a broad
perspective on the economy. At the head of the Fed’s formal organization
is the Board of Governors. The 12 district Federal Reserve banks make up
the next level. The organization of the Fed also includes the Federal Open
Market Committee and three advisory councils. The Federal Reserve has as
stockholders the commercial banks that are members of the system.
- The Fed, as overseer of the nation’s monetary system, has many
important duties: lender of last resort, regulating and supervising banks,
supplying services to banks and to the government, foreign exchange
operations, and controlling the money supply and interest rates.
- The main responsibilities of the Fed is that of formulating and
implementing monetary policy which consists of changing the economy’s
money supply to help the economy in achieving maximum output and
employment and also stable prices. The Fed used three policy instruments
to influences the money supply: open market operations, the discount
rates, and the reserve requirements.
Money Creation and Controlling the Money
Supply
When banks makes loans, the money supply changes. Remember that M1 =
currency + checkable (demand) deposits.
Start by depositing $100 in a bank
FIRST NATIONAL BANK |
Assets |
Liabilities |
Reserves |
$10.00 |
Deposits |
$100.00 |
Loans |
90.00 |
|
|
First National loans part of the money and creates and addition $90 that goes
into 2nd National.
SECOND NATIONAL BANK |
Assets |
Liabilities |
Reserves |
$9.00 |
Deposits |
$90.00 |
Loans |
81.00 |
|
|
Each time the money is deposited and a bank loan is created, more money is
created.
Main Tools of Monetary Policy
Definition of Open Market Operations: the purchase and sale of U.S.
government bonds by the Fed.
a. If the Fed wants to increase the supply of money, it creates dollars and
uses them to purchase government bonds from the public.
b. If the Fed wants to lower the supply of money, it sells government bonds
from its portfolio to the public. Money is then taken out of the hands of the
public and the supply of money falls.
Definition of Discount Rate: the interest rate on the loans that
the Fed makes to banks.
a. When a bank cannot meet its reserve requirements, it may borrow reserves
from the Fed. (See the Reserves in the T-account above.)
b. A higher discount rate discourages banks from borrowing at the Fed and
likely encourages banks to hold onto larger amounts of their reserves. This in
turn lowers the money supply.
c. A lower discount rate encourages banks to lend their reserves (and
borrow from the Fed). This will increase the money supply.