Productivity, Output, and Employment

I. Goal of Part 2: Develop a theoretical model of the macroeconomy

1. Three markets

a. Labor market (this chapter)

b. Goods market (Ch. 4)

c. Asset market (Ch. 7)

II. Goals of Chapter 3

A) Reintroduce the production function as the main determinant of output

1. Discuss the marginal productivity of labor and capital

2. Analyze supply shocks—we did not give this enough attention, but you are able to graph the changes.

B) You should know determinants of labor demand and supply. Remember that I also want to see a graph.

C) Equilibrium in the classical model of the labor market

1. Full-employment output

2. Factors that change equilibrium

D) Unemployment

    1. The textbook had a small discussion of this topic. I am most concerned with the definitions of employment status and the types of unemployment.

       

      . How Much Does the Economy Produce? The Production Function (Sec. 3.1)

      A) Know the factors of production

      B) Be able to use the production function and be able to calculate with basic function.

      D) The shape of the production function

      1. Two main properties of production functions

      a. Slopes upward: more of any input produces more output

      b. Slope becomes flatter as input rises: diminishing marginal product as input increases

    2. Remember the graphs and be able to explain the shape.

 

II. The Demand for Labor (Sec. 3.2)

A) How much labor do firms want to use?

1. Know the assumptions

2. Explain the analysis at the margin: costs and benefits of hiring one extra worker—real and nominal

B) Know the factors that shift the labor demand curve

III. The Supply of Labor (Sec. 3.3)

A) Supply of labor is determined by individuals

B) The income-leisure trade-off

1. Utility depends on consumption and leisure

2. Need to compare costs and benefits of working another day

a. Costs: Loss of leisure time

b. Benefits: More consumption, since income is higher

3. If benefits of working another day exceed costs, work another day

4. Keep working additional days until benefits equal costs

C) Real wages and labor supply

1. An increase in the real wage has offsetting income and substitution effects

a. Substitution effect of a higher real wage: Higher real wage encourages work, since the reward for working is higher

b. Income effect of a higher real wage: Higher real wage increases income for the same amount of work time, and with higher income, the person can afford more leisure, so will supply less labor

D) Know the factors that shift the labor supply curve

IV. Labor Market Equilibrium (Sec. 3.4)

A. Equilibrium: Labor supply equals labor demand (Figure 3.7; Key Diagram 2; like text
Figure 3.11)

1. Classical model of the labor market—real wage adjusts quickly (later, in Chapter 11, look at other models of labor market in which real wage does not adjust quickly)

2. Determines full-employment level of employment and market-clearing real wage

3. Factors that shift labor supply or labor demand affect and

4. Problem with classical model: can’t study unemployment

V. Unemployment (Sec. 3.5)

A) Measuring unemployment

1. Categories: employed, unemployed, not in the labor force

2. Labor Force Employed Unemployed

3. Unemployment Rate Unemployed/Labor Force

4. Participation Rate Labor Force/Adult Population

5. Employment Ratio Employed/Adult Population

Weekly Hours of Work and the Wealth of Nations

In 1869, the typical worker in the U.S. manufacturing sector worked approximately fifty-six hours per week. However, as shown in Fig. 3.9, the average workweek in U.S. manufacturing declined steadily into the 1930s. Although various forces contributed to the shortening of the workweek prior to 1930, the main factor underlying this trend was sharply raising real wages. Increases in real wages over the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in the United States were driven by technological innovation and increased productivity and thus were largely permanent. In response to permanent increases in the real wage, workers reduced the amount of labor they supplied.

The response of labor supply to increases in real wages doesn’t explain all of the changes in weekly hours worked. For example, the relatively low number of hours worked per week during the 1930s reflects primarily the general economic collapse that occurred during the Great Depression. The sharp increase in weekly hours of work during the 1940s resulted in part from the threat to national survival posed by World War II, which induced workers to work more hours per week. Since World War II, the workweek in U.S. manufacturing has stabilized at around forty hours, with little decline despite increases in the real wage rate in the 1950s and 1960s. Post–World War II workers, however, have reduced the quantities of labor supplied in other ways, notably by retiring earlier and taking more vacation time.

The historical data given in Fig. 3.9 provide some evidence that, in response to a permanent increase in the real wage, workers choose to have more leisure and to work fewer hours per week. Figure 3.10 presents additional evidence, drawn from thirty-six nations. Each point in the diagram represents a different country. The horizontal axis measures real gross domestic product (GDP) per person, and the vertical axis measures the average number of hours worked per week by production workers in manufacturing. Workers in richer countries with higher wage rates (the United States, Canada) tend to work fewer hours per week than do workers in poorer countries with lower wage rates (South Korea, Bolivia). Because the differences in wages among countries reflect long-term differences in productivity, the fact that high-wage countries have shorter workweeks provides further support for the idea that permanent increases in the real wage cause workers to supply less labor.

1. Is the Unemployment Rate a Good Measure of Economic Distress?

2. What Else Is Important for Production?

3. As Your Wage Rises, Do You Supply More Labor? Or Less?

4. Why Do Oil Price Shocks Hurt the Economy So Much?

5. Should the Minimum Wage Be Increased?


Consumption, Saving, and Investment

I. Consumption and Saving (Sec. 4.1)

Sd YCdG

B) The consumption and saving decision of an individual

1. A person can consume less than current income (saving is positive)

2. A person can consume more than current income (saving is negative)

3. Trade-off between current consumption and future consumption

a. The price of 1 unit of current consumption is 1 r units of future consumption, where
r is the real interest rate

b. Consumption-smoothing motive: the desire to have a relatively even pattern of consumption over time

C) Effect of changes in current income

1. Increase in current income: both consumption and saving increase (vice versa for decrease in current income)

2. Marginal propensity to consume (MPC) fraction of additional current income consumed in current period; between 0 and 1

3. Aggregate level: When current income (Y) rises, Cd rises, but not by as much as Y,
so Sd rises

D) Know the effect of changes in expected future income

E) Effect of changes in wealth

F) Effect of changes in expected real interest rate

G) Fiscal policy

4. Taxes

Ricardian equivalence proposition

II. Investment (Sec. 4.2)

A) Investment fluctuates sharply over the business cycle, so we need to understand investment to understand the business cycle

B) The desired capital stock

1. Desired capital stock—Be able to describe the real costs and real benefits of buying another unit of capital.

a. With taxes, the return to capital is only (1 – t )MPKf

B. Net investment gross investment (I) minus depreciation:

Kt+1Kt ItdKt (4.5)

C. So It K*Kt dKt (4.6)

III. Goods Market Equilibrium (Sec. 4.3)

A) The real interest rate adjusts to bring the goods market into equilibrium

Sd YCdG,

Sd Id (4.8)

B) Be able to use the saving-investment diagram

  1. Do You Believe in Ricardian Equivalence?
  2. Should the Government Reduce Taxes on Capital?

3. Is Saving Too Low in the United States?

4. Should Social Security Funds Be Invested in the Stock Market?

5. How Are You Trading Off the Present for the Future?

6. What Borrowing Constraints Do You Face?

Saving and Investment in the Open Economy

I. Balance of Payments Accounting (Sec. 5.1)

A) Balance of payments accounts

B) The current account

1. Net exports of goods and services

2. Net income from abroad

3. Net unilateral transfers

C) The capital and financial account

1. The capital and financial account records trades in existing assets, either real (for example, houses) or financial (for example, stocks and bonds)

2. The official settlements balance

D) The relationship between the current account and the capital and financial account

1. 2. CA KFA 0 by accounting; every transaction involves offsetting effects

II. Goods Market Equilibrium in an Open Economy (Sec. 5.2)

A) S I CA I (NX NFP) (5.2)

1. So national saving has two uses:

a. Increase the capital stock by domestic investment

b. Increase the stock of net foreign assets by lending to foreigners

2. To get goods market equilibrium, national saving and investment must equal their desired levels:

a. Sd Id CA Id (NX NFP) (5.3)

b. Goods market equilibrium in an open economy

c. Assuming net factor payments are zero, then

Sd Id NX (5.4)

III. Saving and Investment in a Small Open Economy (Sec. 5.3)

A) Small open economy: an economy too small to affect the world real interest rate

1. World real interest rate (rw): the real interest rate in the international capital market

IV. Saving and Investment in Large Open Economies (Sec. 5.4)

A) Large open economy: an economy large enough to affect the world real interest rate

1. Suppose there are just two economies in the world

2. The world real interest rate moves to equilibrate desired international lending by one country with desired international borrowing by the other (Figure 5.2; Key diagram 5; text
Figure 5.8)

1. How Open Is Our Economy?

2. Should We Run Balance of Payments Surpluses?

3. Should We Worry About Foreign Ownership of U.S. Assets?

4. Should the United States Bail Out Other Countries?

5. Should Countries Cooperate?