Consider each of the following questions.
Roy Sullivan was struck by lightning seven times. What chance does a person have of being struck by lightning in their lifetime?
How is the insurance premium for car insurance determined for different people?
What is the probability of the Minnesota Vikings winning the flip of the coin at the beginning of a game in all sixteen regular season games?
All three questions are concerned with probability. The probability of a person to have been struck by lightning seven times, as was Roy Sullivan, and survived each of the strikes is quite small on the order of 10–24 (0.000000000000000000000001). Roy Sullivan's probability of being struck by lightning was much greater than most people since he worked as a ranger in Shenandoah National Park most of his adult life (Roy Sullivan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia). The National Weather Service estimates the chances of a person being struck by lightning in their lifetime (80 years) are
(National Weather Service - Lightning Safety).
Actuaries working for insurance companies use accident data and other factors to determine the risk or probability of a person with certain characteristics of having an accident. The probabilities determined from accident data are a key component in determining a person's insurance rate (Auto insurance risk selection - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).
Though the probability of winning the flip of a fair coin is one-half, the probability that the Vikings would win all sixteen regular season flips is only
(Coin flipping - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).
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Date last modified: June 18, 2010.
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